.....and the other problem with "documentation" is that it is mostly the output of models which in the case of global temperatures cannot be made to conform to observations.
.....and the other problem with "documentation" is that it is mostly the output of models which in the case of global temperatures cannot be made to conform to observations.
Climate models can NEVER predict accurately, and this was known a LONG time ago (1961, my birth year, so 62 years ago) when they first began trying. IN FACT, it was the attempt to do so and seeing that the exact same model can toss off wildly different results just by miniscule rounding "errors" in decimal places out to the thousandths and beyond...that led to what's called Chaos Theory.
"The first real experiment in chaos theory was conducted by a meteorologist, Edward Lorenz. Lorenz worked with a system of equations to predict the weather. In 1961, Lorenz wanted to recreate a past weather sequence using a computer model based on 12 variables, including wind speed and temperature. These variables, or values, were graphed with lines that rose and fell over time. Lorenz was repeating an earlier simulation in 1961.
"However, on this day, Lorenz rounded his variable values to just three decimal places instead of six. This tiny change drastically transformed the whole pattern of two months of simulated weather. Thus, Lorenz proved that seemingly insignificant factors can have a huge effect on the overall outcome.
"Chaos theory explores the effects of small occurrences that can dramatically affect the results of seemingly unrelated events."
There are many irrational numbers in nature (numbers that can't be expressed as a ratio of integers, like pie, 3.141....off into infinity with no repeating sequences) that are needed to ESTIMATE natural phenomenon. But the estimates are always wrong in absolute terms, and often WILDLY wrong.
Any person saying "the climate model predicts," is either so ignorant as to be stupid, or just plain stupid...and probably an abject automatic liar. Like what's-his-face up there.
.....and the other problem with "documentation" is that it is mostly the output of models which in the case of global temperatures cannot be made to conform to observations.
Climate models can NEVER predict accurately, and this was known a LONG time ago (1961, my birth year, so 62 years ago) when they first began trying. IN FACT, it was the attempt to do so and seeing that the exact same model can toss off wildly different results just by miniscule rounding "errors" in decimal places out to the thousandths and beyond...that led to what's called Chaos Theory.
"The first real experiment in chaos theory was conducted by a meteorologist, Edward Lorenz. Lorenz worked with a system of equations to predict the weather. In 1961, Lorenz wanted to recreate a past weather sequence using a computer model based on 12 variables, including wind speed and temperature. These variables, or values, were graphed with lines that rose and fell over time. Lorenz was repeating an earlier simulation in 1961.
"However, on this day, Lorenz rounded his variable values to just three decimal places instead of six. This tiny change drastically transformed the whole pattern of two months of simulated weather. Thus, Lorenz proved that seemingly insignificant factors can have a huge effect on the overall outcome.
"Chaos theory explores the effects of small occurrences that can dramatically affect the results of seemingly unrelated events."
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/chaos-theory.asp
There are many irrational numbers in nature (numbers that can't be expressed as a ratio of integers, like pie, 3.141....off into infinity with no repeating sequences) that are needed to ESTIMATE natural phenomenon. But the estimates are always wrong in absolute terms, and often WILDLY wrong.
Any person saying "the climate model predicts," is either so ignorant as to be stupid, or just plain stupid...and probably an abject automatic liar. Like what's-his-face up there.